The push and pull factors of forced migration
The unprecedented arrivals of asylum seekers at the European borders in recent years has caught the European Union and Member States largely unprepared. The radical increase of arrivals was largely unexpected, despite knowledge of escalating crises in such countries as Afghanistan, Iraq, or Syria. Asylum-related migration is, indeed, all but straightforward, and thus extremely difficult to foresee. Such questions as why people leave their homes to seek asylum in other countries, or how they choose their destinations, have not yet met with conclusive answers. Even in the case of apparently clear drivers of forced migration – such as violent conflicts – it is not obvious how, when and why a crisis becomes the source of internationally displaced populations, and what explains the routes and destinations chosen by migrants. The presentation will focus on the drivers of forced migration, organised around Lee’s seminal framework based on ‘push and pull factors’. The first part of the presentation will describe the landscape of asylum-related migration to Europe in recent years. The second part will discuss the drivers, and whether understanding those drivers can improve early warning and preparedness in Europe.
Marcello Carammia is a Senior Lecturer in European politics at the Institute for European Studies of the University of Malta. His theoretical interest lies on comparative politics and agenda-setting processes, and he has a substantive interest in political institutions, EU integration, and the politics of migration. He is a principal investigator of the Italian Policy Agendas team and a member of the EU team. He has published on such journals as European Union Politics, the Journal of Common Market Studies, the Journal of European Public Policy, the Policy Studies Journal, and South European Society and Politics. Marcello is currently on leave from University, serving as a Senior Researcher at the European Asylum Support Office, the EU agency for asylum-seeker, where he is in charge of the agency's Research Programme on the push-pull factors of migration.