Another Twenty Years Crisis? World Politics 2010-2030
Prediction is difficult; long term prediction almost impossible: however, we all engage in prediction. Indeed, we cannot but think of the past and the present without already prefiguring the future. This seminar will not so much explore the methodological problems inherent in any kind of prediction, but rather suggest that certain basic assumptions we have made about the international system for the last twenty years may not hold true for the next twenty. We are, I will sugest, at one of those critical "tipping point" moments where previous road maps will almost certainly prove less than useful - possibly useless - in understanding the dynamics of world politics between 2010 and 2030.